POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE UPDATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON: AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT BEGINNING TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE... ...SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maartin * Dominica
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions could begin reach portions of the north coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. At 2 p.m. AST, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is located about 510 miles (820 km) east-southeast of the Leeward Islands. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight or Wednesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the system. The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.
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