It is that time of the year where we are nearing the end of Summer and you might be wondering what Fall might have in store. Meteorological Fall begins September 1st and Astronomical Fall the Autumn Equinox is September 22nd. Atlanta has had over 30 days in the 90's this year and other southern cities have had even more. The weather patterns that occurs in the Pacific Ocean like La Nina and El Nino can have impacts on our weather in the US and even in the southern and southeast US. There is a 50 to 55% chance of La Nina conditions this Fall and they could last through the winter. Below is my Fall Weather Outlook I want to note just because an area is predicted to have average or above average temperatures and or precipitation does not mean there won't be cooler days and weeks at times and vice versa. These outlooks are based on the entire fall season averaged together. I expect near average to slightly above average temperatures for much of the eastern US and southeast. I expect well above average temperatures and an extension of summer weather into the fall out west especially across the southern plains Texas, and much of the southern and southwest US. Texas, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, California, Arizona, and parts of Oregon. For Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Mississippi, Virginia, Kentucky, and the rest of the eastern US I expect near normal average temperatures and at times slightly above average temperatures. I expect above average to well above average precipitation for the extreme northwest US and parts of the Pacific Northwest mainly for the middle and 2nd half of the Fall the beginning of fall could begin on the dry side. I expect above average precipitation for much of the northern US including The Great Lakes Region, parts of the midwest, and northern plains. I expect below average precipitation for parts of the south and especially the southwest and southern Plains. There will continue to be an elevated fire danger in much of the western US and parts of the southern Pacific northwest especially early in the fall season. I expect drought conditions to persist in Texas, Colorado, Nevada, California, parts of Oklahoma, and southern Oregon. Drought could develop in parts of the south and southeast especially parts of Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Arkansas if conditions become too dry. The southeast will need more widespread rain to avoid drought conditions. A La Nina pattern typically means drier than average conditions for the south this does not mean there won't be any rain in the south it just means less rain compared to what the south typically sees in the fall and less rain than what the south would see in an El Nino pattern. I will update this outlook if necessary this fall I might do a 2nd outlook for the 2nd half of fall sometime in October. My preliminary winter weather outlook will be released sometime in late October or early November. A La Nina pattern can impact hurricane season as well typically during a La Nina there are more storms in the Atlantic Ocean.
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