2023-2024 WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK: It is that time of year time to look ahead to see what winter might have in store. Astronomical Winter begins December 21st. For Weather and climate purposes Winter starts when Meteorological Winter does on December 1st. Before going in-depth please keep in mind that of course climate-based long range meteorological outlooks are more complex than regular 5 and 7 day forecasts. You will often see me reference Atlanta and other parts of the southeast because that is the closest big city and area to where I live and forecast for. If you have any questions about the outlook, want information for your area or just a general weather question feel free to send me a message or comment below. I have been researching various factors that impact Winter Weather Across the South and really for the entire United States from previous Winters (analogs), to sea surface temperatures, Jet stream Patterns, Snow cover over Canada and Siberia. This year we have El Niño. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. The ENSO cycle is a scientific term that describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the east-central Equatorial Pacific. El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. This will likely be a strong El Niño. Keep in mind just because one area is showing above average temperatures or below average temperatures for the winter does NOT mean that it will be really cold or really warm the entire winter. In the south and southeast including Georgia and Alabama I think we will have near average temperatures to slightly below average temperatures in most of Georgia and Alabama that is for the winter as a whole compared to average. I expect above average precipitation in the southeast mainly due to the expected active storm track and subtropical jet stream. I expect below average precipitation and drier than average conditions for parts of the northern United States including around The Great Lakes, much of North Dakota, Montana, parts of Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio. Of course the areas that are expected to have below average precipitation can still get rain and snow during the winter. Below average precipitation does not mean no rain at all or no snow. I expect Drought conditions to improve for parts of the south and southeast. By the time winter is over parts of the southeast could be drought free. I expect many wet days across the south and southeast due to the active storm track. Sometimes it takes a while for El Niño to fully be established as far as the active storm track goes. With that being said, I expect mostly above average temperatures in December but of course there will be some chilly days at times too. I expect the bulk of the coldest air and potentially better snow chances in January and February. I believe some of the colder air might linger into parts of March as well. The average and below average temperatures across the southeast may not necessarily be due to frequent arctic cold blasts but more so cool rainy and cloudy days but of course there could be a few big cold blasts. I expect a lot of variability. Looking back over the decades a lot of our really good snows in Georgia and the southeast happened during relatively warm spells as a whole examples include January 9th 2011 the day before the snow it was 59 degrees then we had 3.7" of Snow by the next night, 2014 before a major snow/ice storm shut down Atlanta and Birmingham, temperatures were in the low 60's! One last example there are many as you can tell but before the Blizzard of 1993 temperatures was in the 70's just a few days before. The Blizzard of 93 occurred during a neutral year when we had neither El Niño or La Niña. When the polar vortex is weak parts of it can break off and move south and cold air can move into parts of the lower 48 including the deep south. The North Atlantic Oscillation can impact our winter temperatures as well as the QBO and Arctic Oscillation. Some of these factors can't be predicted and indicated more than about 2 weeks in advance but they can have big impacts as to if we have colder weather or really warm weather (see more below on the maps and diagrams). Our last big winter with impacts from the Polar Vortex was winter 2014 particularly January and February 2014 when several snow and ice storms hit and we had significant cold weather at times. When our weather patterns get stuck with ridging or a trough from time to time it can also have big impacts in the winter. The troughs bring cool and (sometimes) cold air and unsettled weather and the ridges cause a big warm up. You might have heard of the southeast ridge before when a ridge develops over the southeast that can cause very warm weather and prevent cold air from moving into the southeast but on the other hand It only takes one time for cold air to match up at the right time with moisture to get a winter system. Often times during winter storms whether it be snow or ice or both there are sharp cut offs in totals. There are also sharp cut offs with the rain/snow line. Sometimes we can end up getting more ice than snow if what is known as a warm nose develops. When forecasting winter weather it is important to not only account for the temperature at the surface but also higher up in the atmosphere. The temperature can be freezing at the surface but higher up if it is warmer of course the precipitation would not fall as snow but ice. For this winter, I made a "Just for fun" Snow forecast range for parts of Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee. Of course the totals won't be exact but they give a good idea of what could fall when and IF the pattern aligns and we can merge the cold air with a storm/low pressure or multiple storms. Of course keep in mind that a lot of the averages in the southeast are so small that one storm can bring a whole season/years worth of snow. For example, in Atlanta the average is only 2.2" of Snow, Birmingham averages 1.2", Huntsville 2.5", Knoxville averages 4.6" and Chattanooga averages 3.6". Of course Last winter Atlanta only had 0.1" of snow and the winter before that only had 0.5". The Winter of 2017-2018 had 4.8" of snow officially at the Atlanta airport that was the most recent decent winter as far as snow goes. For my snow range forecast I went with 1.5-4.5" in metro Atlanta, 2-8" in most areas of West Georgia and east Alabama, Northwest Georgia 2-8", Tennessee Valley 3-9" and of course varying amounts for the mountains based on elevation. For 1200-2500 feet a range of 6-18", 3000-3500 feet a range of 8-40", and 4000 feet+ 14-75". A lot of the highest mountain peaks average between 30 and 84" of snow. Brasstown Bald in Georgia averages between 30 and 40" of snow at over 4000 feet. Clingmans Dome in the Smokies averages up to 84" of snow. I also expect at least 1 or 2 ice events especially in northeast Georgia and the Carolinas. It is important to remember severe weather can occur anytime of the year especially in the south and southeast. January 2023 brought significant severe weather and tornadoes to parts of Georgia and Alabama. Make sure you are staying up to date with the latest forecasts, check time stamps to make sure you aren't seeing old information in your news feed on social media. Regardless of what this winter brings I'll be here to keep everyone informed every step of the way.
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