Before going in-depth, please keep in mind that meteorology is NOT an exact science, and climate-based meteorological forecasts are more complex than regular 5 and 7 day forecasts. I have been researching various factors that impact Winter Weather Across the South and really for the entire United States from previous Winters (analogs) to sea surface temperatures, Jet stream Patterns, Snow cover over Canada and Siberia. Below after all my typed thoughts about the Winter there is many maps and graphics explaining everything! This year we will likely Not have an El Niño or La Niña. Last year we had El Niño which resulted in Very Wet conditions across the South and Southeast but no moisture really ever matched up with the cold air. (ENSO) Neutral Phase which is what we will be in this winter is when Sea Surface Temperatures anomalies across the Equatorial Eastern Pacific averages out to near-zero. Below I not only put the temperature forecast, Precipitation forecast, and Snowfall forecast for the entire US I also put the stats for several major Southern Cities. I reviewed every Major snow storm in Georgia since the 1930's! ALSO, Keep in mind just because one area is showing above average temperatures or below average temperatures does NOT mean that it will be really cold or really warm the entire winter. In the South and Southeast I am forecasting above average temperatures in most areas that is for the winter as a whole compared to average. There will be SEVERAL Cold Snaps and Warm Spells in the South with very wet conditions overall. ALSO very important to note that a region can have ABOVE Average temperatures and still have ABOVE Average snowfall. Like I mentioned above average temperatures does not mean the entire winter December-March will be extremely warm. In fact looking back over the decades a lot of our really good snows in Georgia and the southeast happened during relatively warm spells as a whole examples include January 9th 2011 the day before the snow it was 59 degrees then we had 3.7" of Snow by the next night, 2014 before a major snow/ice storm shut down Atlanta and Birmingham, temperatures were in the low 60's! One last example there are many as you can tell but before the Blizzard of 1993 temperatures was in the 70's just a few days before. Snowjam '82 in Atlanta a major snowstorm happened during a Neutral year as well as the Blizzard of 1993 when 13" fell in Birmingham, over 18" in Chattanooga, Over a Foot across North Georgia, Atlanta had over 4" of snow then but much more across north Georgia and the suburbs. I recap many storms below as well. We will likely see a few winter storms that drive our seasonal snow above average but in between those few storms it will be warm and wet in the South. Being able to time out just a few storms with some cold air is all it will take. In the mountains, the wet pattern combined with the active storm track will give them the ability to get several snowstorms. I expect the Smoky Mountains, Northeast Georgia Mountains, Western North Carolina, Parts of Virginia, Kentucky, and parts of the Ohio Valley and Parts of the Northeast to have ABOVE AVERAGE Snowfall. Not only Above Average in Western North Carolina and the Smoky Mountains but WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. Also WELL ABOVE AVERAGE from the Dakotas over to the Great Lakes, and Interior Northeast. Just like every winter I expect BIG Swings in temperatures one week or several weeks it will be really warm then the next will be really cold. If there are CAD Situations (Cold Air Damming also known as the WEDGE) we tend to get Ice and Frozen Precipitation in Parts of Northeast Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, and into the Piedmont of North Carolina. Charlotte North Carolina is known as the Ice Storm Capital of America. Atlanta is also no stranger to Ice with several Ice storms one back in January 2000 Atlanta had a major ice storm during the Superbowl, a major Ice storm also took place back in 1973, and 2014 during the Snowjam there was also a layer of ice with the snow. I expect several Nor'easters this year more than last year and lots of lake effect snow up north. Several Blizzards possible across the middle and northern Plains. For the Northwestern US due to high pressure at times I expect not as much snowfall than what there typically is. On the Maps below if one region/area is blank that means either Near Average or equal chances of below average precipitation, above average precipitation or above average temperatures or below average temperatures. I also expect near record high water levels around the Great Lakes, Several strong storms with high wind events, and flooding is likely up around Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin at times throughout the winter. Flooding is also possible at times in the deep south.
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