TROPICAL UPDATE SUNDAY TRACKING FRED AND GRACE: FRED STRENGTHENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...STORM SURGE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO YANKEETOWN...
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida state line to Navarre
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning on Monday. A tornado or two are possible this afternoon into early Monday along the west coast of Florida and over the Florida Panhandle.
Interests elsewhere along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the Florida Big Bend should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office -
At 4 p.m. CDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico about 235 miles (380 km) south of Panama City, Florida. It's moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico through Monday, then make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle Monday afternoon or Monday night.
Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). Additional strengthening is expected until landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: - Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft - Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft - AL/FL state line to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint - Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft - Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft
Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: * Through Monday... - Florida Keys and South Florida... 3 to 5 inches. * Through Tuesday... - The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches. - Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches. - Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts.
...GRACE STILL EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic tonight and Monday, and in Haiti on Monday and Monday night.
Interests elsewhere in the the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Grace.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
At 5 p.m. AST, the center of now Tropical Depression Grace was located about 85 miles (135 km) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and about 200 miles (320 km) east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, and about 345 miles (560 km) east-southeast of Port Au Prince, Haiti. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A generally west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Grace will move over Hispaniola on Monday, near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday, and near or over west-central Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts today into Tuesday: - Virgin Islands...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash and urban flooding. - Puerto Rico...3 to 6 inches with isolated higher amounts. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash, urban and small stream flooding and possible mudslides. - Haiti and the Dominican Republic...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches across southern terrain areas. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash and urban flooding and possible mudslides from Monday into Tuesday. - By mid to late week, heavy rainfall from this system could impact portions of Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida.
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