Weather technology has come a long way over the past 20 to 30 years and even in the past 10 to 15 years we have seen new advancements in Meteorology. The modern day five and seven day forecasts are now as accurate as the two to three day forecasts was about 25 years ago. Studies show a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather 90 percent of the time. A 10 day forecast or longer has less accuracy of course. Models about a week out are okay but models 2 weeks and beyond perform very poorly typically. 2 weeks and beyond I look for "pattern recognition" only is the pattern more favorable or less favorable for more rain, maybe snow and or increased tropical activity based on the time of the year it is and ingredients at play. Small scale features in Meteorology can make a big difference for better and sometimes worse. From time to time pages on Social media post long range model runs showing major hurricanes and snow storms that 9 times out of 10 don't pan out because they are so far into the future typically around 2 weeks or so out into the future.
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